2010, a turbulent year for S. Korea, DPRK
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Future of inter-Korean relations looks grim
There are different views among observers over what caused the confusion on the Korean peninsula.
"The Lee administration has taken a wrong strategic approach by sticking only to the hard-line policy, which failed to bring about fundamental changes in North Korea," said Yang Moo-jin, professor at Kyungnam University.
Some observers blamed the "sunshine policy," an engagement policy adopted by South Korea's two previous administrations toward Pyongyang, arguing the enormous amount of aid from Seoul only helped Pyongyang develop nuclear programs and feed its soldiers.
Some blamed Washington's so-called "strategic patience" toward Pyongyang, as they believe the idea of waiting for Pyongyang to reach out first before offering it incentives only irritated the attention-seeking country.
But most agree on one thing: The immediate future of relations between South Korea and the DPRK looks grim, especially as the divided peninsula remains geopolitically important to major powers.
"At this point, the South and the North are not capable of defusing military tension or resolving the current standoff on their own," said Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, adding other major powers have greater leverage.
If South Korea eventually cools off and heads to the six-party negotiating table, as recently suggested by China, progress can be made, he said. But it will not happen anytime soon -- Seoul, Washington and Tokyo have been adamant in their opposition to returning to the talks before Pyongyang takes some responsible steps, he added.
However, domestic political situations of major players might force a change in the mood, observers said. "The DPRK needs to focus on delivering on its promise to become the 'powerful and prosperous nation' by 2012, meaning it should be doing more to secure internal stability," Yang said.
Seoul and Washington are also in the same boat on that matter, he said. U.S. President Barack Obama, widely expected to seek a second term in office, needs some visible diplomatic accomplishments. And Lee, headed into the lame duck period, should seek some sort of stability on the Korean peninsula not to be recorded in history as the worst leader on inter-Korean relations.
Still, it largely remains as a wishful thinking. Inter-Korean relations in 2011, simply put, will remain under "dark clouds," Yang said.
