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E-mail Xinhua, July 15, 2024
If there is one event in the Olympic Games that is hard to predict, it is the Olympic road race in men's and women's cycling.
The leg-breaking 273 kilometers of the men's course, which finishes in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, gives plenty of scope for the unexpected to happen, where a puncture at the wrong moment could derail a gold-medal attempt.
The Olympics follow hot on the heels of the Tour de France, which this year finishes in Nice, and tired legs from three weeks in the saddle could be a factor for some riders as they face 2,800 meters of climbing in quest for medals.
The Olympic road race is like few others, partly because teams are limited to a maximum of four riders for the most powerful cycling nations - France, Belgium, Denmark, Britain and Slovenia, while others such as Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Australia have only three riders each.
Smaller teams mean a change of tactics - normally, a rider will have a team of six or seven companions, with three or four to use their energy to chase down any breakaways. However, with only three or four members in a team, it's all too easy to burn out your teammates if nobody else collaborates in a chase - this is what happened to Mark Cavendish in London in 2012.
Cavendish went to London as the best sprinter in the world and clear favorite to win if the race ended in a sprint finish, so when there was an attack off the front, nobody helped the Team GB riders chase it down, leaving Cavendish frustrated and without a medal.
The small teams and style of race probably rule out pure sprinters, such as Jasper Philipsen and favors riders who can specialize in the so-called 'one day classics', with current Tour de France leader Tadej Pogacar the standout favorite after storming to the victory in the Giro de Italia earlier this year, while also winning the 'Classic' races Strade Bianche and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
In the Strade Bianche and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Pogacar was able to attack the field on a climb and ride off the front with over 50 kilometers left in the race, and he could look to repeat that in Paris.
Any questions over Pogacar will be over his fitness after riding the Tour de France and Giro, and also whether the climbs in Paris are tough enough to allow him to launch a decisive solo attack.
If Pogacar has to contest a sprint finish then Belgian Remco Evenepoel and Dutch rider Mathieu Van der Poel also have to be considered favorites as they can all but match his stamina and both have slightly faster finishes.
Reigning world champion Van der Poel is a supreme one-day rider, with three wins in the Tour of Flanders and wins in the 2023 and 2024 editions of the Paris-Roubaix.
Evenepoel was the world champion in 2022, and two Liege-Bastogne-Liege among his 'palmares' also highlighted the talents of the Belgian, who will also have Wout van Aert in his team, although Van Aert's preparations have not been helped by a bad fall he sustained in the spring.
Reigning Olympic champion Richard Carapaz has not been called up by Ecuador and won't defend his crown, while twice Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard is more of a stage rather than a one-day rider.
The only thing that looks certain in this race is that sooner or later French Julian Alaphilippe will launch an attack and with the pavements packed with fans cheering him on, who certainly has the chance of a medal.
Italy's Filippo Ganna will start the time trial as favorite, but Evenepoel is also a good medal hopeful in this race, with young British rider Joshua Tarling could also threaten the podium.
In the women's road race, Dutch rider Demi Vollering looks to be the favorite after a magnificent 2024, while Lotte Kopecky of Belgium goes to Paris as the reigning world champion and winner of the women's Paris-Roubaix and Strade Bianche.
Italy's Elisa Balsamo should also be close as Britain's Lizzie Deignan, while if the race goes to a sprint, don't bet against 2012 gold medal winner, Marianne Vos adding another Olympic gold to her haul of titles.
Van der Poel should also go close in the time trial, where riders such as America's Chloe Dygert, Grace Brown of Australia and France's Juliette Labous should also challenge for medals.
