The number of foreign players drafted in the NBA has been dropping.
A record 21 foreign players were drafted in 2003, but the total has dropped each year since. The total fell to 13 last season.
If the mock drafts hold up, that number could dip again during Thursday's pick.
Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird has been trimming his international scouting trips in the past year because the talent pool has been smaller than usual.
"This year, in Europe, there really weren't as many players ready," Bird said. "There's some guys ready to come over, but they're not ready to play in the NBA."
Ricky Rubio of Spain and Hasheem Thabeet of Tanzania are expected to be among the top five picks. But there are few other sure things from other countries this year.
Experts say there is still plenty of NBA-caliber talent outside the United States and they don't see a trend, but past failures have caused teams to be more careful about their selections. Of those 21 international players drafted in 2003, eight never played a minute in the NBA, and just one, Leandro Barbosa of Brazil, has a career average of more than 10 points per game.
For every Dirk Nowitzki (Germany), Steve Nash (Canada) or Yao Ming (China), there have been several Peter Fehses (Germany) - good foreign players who never panned out.
Maurizio Gherardini, former general manager of Italian power Benetton Treviso, was vice president of basketball operations for the Toronto Raptors. He has seen both sides of what happens when a foreign player doesn't work out in the NBA.
"There's too many examples of players that have come here too early, not ready, and ended up not having the experience that they should have had," he said. "The international element needs to be there, but only when it makes sense from a technical standpoint, from a quality standpoint."
This year, only a few players appear to make sense.
"It's just about when players develop," said Ryan Blake, the NBA's assistant director of scouting. "I think in the NBA, it really doesn't matter what type of player you are, as long as you're a talented player, a needed player, a desirable player. Right now, internationally, there are not that many desirable players that teams would want."
Blake said the talent pool goes in cycles.
"I do think it's a down year, but I don't think it's a trend,' he said. "It's just how it goes and how people developed."
The 2003 draft is best remembered for the astounding domestic talent, including LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh.
It was also the same year that Serbian Darko Milicic was picked second overall by Detroit, and he has averaged just 17 minutes per game during his six years in the league. Barbosa, Mickael Pietrus (France), Sasha Pavlovic (Serbia), Boris Diaw (France), Carlos Delfino (Argentina) and Zaza Pachulia (Georgia) were successful international players drafted that year. Others were busts.
In those days, teams were simply in a race to make sure they didn't miss the next superstar. Now, all parties are smarter about when a player should make the jump. Some of the top eligible overseas players backed out and will likely enter the draft in 2010.
"Now, next year, there's a group of kids coming through that's probably going to be ready to go, and we'll spend more time over there," Bird said.
Joe Ash, Indiana's director of scouting, said teams spend more time and money tracking prospects at a young age so they have a shorter list of players to get serious about. For now, teams tend to draft young European players with potential in the second round, then leave them abroad to develop. Many teams hold rights to such players.
The Pacers have two such players, Erazem Lorbek (Slovenia) and Stanko Barac (Croatia). Neither has played in the NBA, but Ash said both players have improved and that Lorbek now was an NBA-caliber player.
Gherardini, the Raptors' VP, said he expects the number of international players getting drafted to go back up in the coming years.
"Overall, I think if we would have looked at this class a few years ago, we would have anticipated that it would not have been as good as some other years," he said. "Just like looking forward, we can say the class two years from now or four years from now would be very, very good."
(AP via China Daily June 26, 2009)
