Takeaways from British and French elections
- By Sumantra Maitra
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E-mail China.org.cn, June 15, 2017
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British Prime Minister Theresa May gives a speech at 10 Downing Street after meeting with the Queen in London, Britain on June 9, 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed Friday afternoon she will form a Westminster government, helped by members of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). [Photo/Xinhua] |
Theresa May, won, but defying all predictions, it was Jeremy Corbyn's night. I don't want to reiterate the numbers, as the readers already know who won how many seats. However, there are some quick takeaways from this intense last few months.
First of all, it is obvious Britain voted tribalistically. It didn't matter that May was robotic in her speeches or whether Jeremy Corbyn had dubious former ties and judgements. The personal characteristics of the leaders didn't matter much, and public voted mostly on drawn up battle lines.
This result is similar to the first victory of Cameron in 2010. Conservatives won, but not enough to roll over the entire country. That said, this vote was also a revenge of the Remainers. Conservatives were wiped out of London, no surprises there. But they also lost Oxford, and Canterbury, not known to be a bastion of flaming Trotskyists. Canterbury was regarded as a Tory fort. That proves that Conservatives are tired of May's hardline rhetoric and vacuous slogans like "Brexit means Brexit" and "strong and stable" relationship.
What was forgotten before the election was that half the country was opposed to leaving the EU and a lot of those who supported were not hardliners and racists, proven by the fact that the only far right party, UKIP, was wiped out of the election map scoring only 1.8 percent vote. A lot of moderate remain conservatives quite clearly jumped the shark.
To quote the old saying, right wingers fall in love, left wingers fall in line. The right wing love for Brexit and May is over, while Labour managed to rally their troops behind their banner, even when the Labour leader was universally pilloried by the press.
The second point that I wrote several times before, is the fact that there was truth in what Jeremy Corbyn said, and that resonated with the public. That British interventions in Libya and the broader Middle East and NATO expansion has been a disaster. There's now pointless brinkmanship with Russia, a ravaged North African coastline which is the launch pad for smugglers and terrorists, and an incessant backlash for flawed activist foreign policy.
The British public are tired of paying taxes and see their men go to fight wars in places where there's no discerning British interest, whether geopolitical or economic. The second point that resonated with the people was Corbyn's pledge of increased police. The Conservatives under Cameron gutted the internal security infrastructure of the U.K., and the effect is all too evident now with almost weekly attacks and a brewing insurgency Europewide.
That said, May will now be dependent on DUP to back her up in Parliament. While there are questions whether a formal alliance can ever happen, as that might breach the terms of the Good Friday agreement, the Unionists usually vote along the same lines with the Conservatives and will continue to do so. The only good thing is that no one wants a hard land border in Ireland, and that would mean that it is in neither the DUP or the Conservative interest to demand a hard cliff edge Brexit, which will result in the imposition of tariffs, and custom checks on borders.
Across the channel, however, real "strong and stable" government is forming with Macron winning his parliamentary vote, essentially giving him the powers of an authoritarian, should he choose to use it like one, not that he is going to.
The French system allows the president to directly decide foreign policy, and needs the Parliament for domestic policy. The upstart liberal party formed a year back, now has bled the right and left and is forming one of the biggest governments in parliament.
However, I am cynical. France suffers from structural economic rots, including deep problems with regards to efficiency, work time, and protest, not to mention a nagging domestic Islamist insurgency problem. Old timers will remember that Sarkozy tried to change the French system as well, but failed due to provincial resistance and riots. And that was when Europe was fairly peaceful without any migrant problems or wars in the East. Macron is young and idealistic, and looks like David Cameron circa 2010, and we all know how that crashed and burned. Yet, there's hope. Europe needs a strong center, and France is a natural leader.
One can only hope that good sense will prevail on both sides of the Channel. The external powers like China, India and U.S. already noted why the common market is good for both Britain and Europe. British policy makers surely understand that as well, and it seems that the British public is slowly getting that as well. Brexit cannot be hard, the forces of economics do not allow that, both for Europe and United Kingdom. The sane people understand that worldwide. Whether that translates to actual policy, remains to be seen.
Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
http://www.formacion-profesional-a-distancia.com/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm
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