The nature of the Saudi-Iran conflict
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, February 21, 2016
As a major Shiite state, Iran is also constructing a sphere of influence, seeing itself at the core of the Middle East. It is evident that Iran has been very successful in this regard. Iran has been able to include Lebanon's Hizbollah and Iraq in its sphere of influence. Quite a number of the clerics of the two countries have experience studying religion in Iran, and quite a number of Iraq's Shiite decision makers used to seek asylum in Iran when Saddam Hussein was persecuting them. Iran also has been able to reach the Shiite oppositions of Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia during the so-called Arab Spring, what Saudis call Iranian intervention.
The latest disputes actually reflect the competition between the two in the last decade and Saudi's anxiety about Iran's expansion. As mentioned, while Iran has consolidated its standing in the Shiite Middle East, Saudi Arabia has reasons to feel frustrated. As a result of political transition, Iraq fell into Iran's embrace. Bashar Assad still remains in power and is even more strongly allied with Iran despite the major Saudi investment pushing for his demise. Yemen's Huthi forces, which are supported by Iran, have not been defeated despite Saudi Arabia's intervention. Bahrain, a major ally of Saudi Arabia, is still in turmoil.
It is true that both Saudi Arabia and Iran will maintain restraint. Restraint is the common nature of nation states. Shortly after Iranians stormed Saudi embassy, Saudis clearly expressed that they would not go to war with Iran while Iran arrested those who stormed the Saudi embassy and clearly said that they would face justice, which is quite different from its experience in dealing with similar issues. Both have clearly stated that they will cooperate with the political resolution of the Syrian crisis.
However, employing religious means will also pose challenges to regional security issues. While elites are rational, ordinary believers are not necessarily so. They might look at the conflicts through sectarian lenses. As a result, Sunnis might attack Shiites with Shiites seeking revenge. This will add oil to the fires of the region.
The current tension has also reflected the conflicts between the two regarding the Syrian issue. Though both have expressed a readiness for cooperation, it is least likely that either of the two will step backward from their original positions. Saudi Arabia will even strongly adhere to its previous stance which asserts that Bashar Assad will have to go while Iran will stick to its principle that Syria will have to be decided by its own people.
As is evident, Saudi-Iran tensions have become a part of the Middle East problem. The reconciliation will finally depend on how the two will seek ways to step out of the tension, and the international community needs to invest efforts in promoting their reconciliation while preparing for the up-and-downs.
The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:
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