The $17 trillion BRICS shift that few noticed
- By Dan Steinbock
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E-mail China.org.cn, July 14, 2015
The seventh BRICS Summit took place in Ufa, the capital of Russia’s Bashkortostan Republic. In the West, most observers were preoccupied with the “make-or-break” days of Greece, which accounts for less than 0.4 percent of the global economy, rather than the BRICS Summit, which represents about 20 percent of the world economy.
At the same time, the BRICS leaders pledged to forge a closer economic partnership, which will be the “key guideline” for expanding trade, investment and cooperation in broad areas, from manufacturing to energy. It was followed by the 15th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which is expected to start a critical enlargement process for India and Pakistan.
The neglect reflects the new conventional wisdom, which suggests that large emerging economies are actually increasingly marginal to the world economy, or as a Brookings pre-summit analysis put it: “The BRICS Summit: A shadow of the former self it never was.”
This is conventional wisdom, which is always acceptable, often predictable but seldom right. In addition to a wish-fulfilling fantasy, it is a convenient way to rewrite recent history.
The BRICS fantasies and realities
According to the new conventional wisdom, the BRICS bloc came into being during the turbulent days of the global financial crisis. For obvious reasons, it does not respond to the question how. In fall 2008 advanced economies were at facing an economic abyss. The latter was only avoided by support of G20 – mainly by the large emerging BRICS economies.
According to the new conventional wisdom, the BRICS bloc was heralded as a grouping that would challenge the West for leadership in the international order. In reality, the BRICS grouping was created to complement – not to substitute – the existing international multilateral institutions.
Moreover, the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization, and so on have never represented a truly international order. In the emerging world, they are seen as dominated by American, European and Japanese interests, as reflected by their voting quotas, investment allocations and the nationality of their leaders.
During the global crisis, the G7 nations gave their word to speed up reforms in the international institutions. After the crisis, those promises were first delayed, then forgotten. That’s why BRICS economies moved ahead on their own; not to replace the West, but to create adequate representation for emerging and developing economies.
