What the changes in Syria mean
- By Jin Liangxiang
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E-mail China.org.cn, May 26, 2014
The last months have witnessed several major developments in the Syrian issue including the withdrawal of the opposition troops from Homs, the so-called capital of the revolution, Bashar Assad's announcement that he was joining the presidential election and the resignation of Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN and Arab League special envoy. These are obviously in Bashar Assad's favor, but the Syrian crisis is far from over. On the contrary, Bashar Assad will have to face tough challenges.
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[By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn] |
![[By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]](http://images.china.cn/attachement/jpg/site1007/20140526/001ec949c22b14ecf84e41.jpg "[By Jiao Haiyang/China.org.cn]")
The United States and the West at large have been making efforts to make the world believe that Bashar Assad's regime would soon collapse ever since the Syria crisis broke out in March 2011. Both Barack Obama and John Kerry have frequently claimed that Bashar Assad must leave. The precedents, Tunisia's Ben Ali, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, Yemen's Ali Abdullah Salehi and Libya's Muammar Qaddafi certainly strengthened the belief.
Historical analogies can be sources of human wisdom, but they are not always right. The stories on the ground in Syria have proved different. Bashar Assad's regime seemed to have survived the crisis as the opposition forces, hungry and exhausted, abandoned Homs in early May. Though the recapture of Homs is far from being a full victory for the government, it is least likely that the opposition will be able to organize a meaningful comeback. Otherwise, it should not have withdrawn from a city so important, both politically and strategically.
The victory in the battle fields of Homs and other parts of the territory has greatly enhanced the legitimacy of Bashar Assad's regime. Hence, Assad's decision to hold the presidential election and to participate in it is a calculated one. He seems to have no competitors.
But this decision suggests that Bashar Assad would like to take the advantage of the favorable situation to enhance his position and political power through an election since he might not be optimistic about the prospect of the negotiation.
Through the decision, Bashar Assad might also try to send a clear signal that he is here to stay, and it is not realistic to expect him to step down. Or to put it another way, the opposition cannot achieve what they cannot achieve on the battlefield.
