Why does China need to balance the US?
- By Zheng Yongnian
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E-mail China.org.cn, April 19, 2014
The best choice for the United States is to dominate Asia alone, and China would also like to do the same. But it is in the best interest of Asian countries to avoid having a single dominating power in Asia. Also in view of their respective national powers, either the United States or China will have to take the second best strategy -- sharing a position in Asia. That's why members of ASEAN happily accepted China's proposal that the ASEAN should take a leadership role in the "ASEAN 10+1" or "10+3" framework. But they were worried when the United States asked them to work with it against China. Most of the ASEAN states have deep economic or strategic relations with both China and the United States. They do not like to be forced to choose between the two, because this would definitely harm their own national interests.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. All power needs to be checked and balanced, even the United States. So the question is whether China has the power to balance the United States or not. And the answer is yes, if proper strategies are applied. China is now the second largest economy in the world. And the United States needs China's support to maintain its top position. If China is cooperative, the United States can keep its hegemony longer. But if China becomes a "troublemaker," the United States will face a great challenge to its dominance. Therefore, China can balance the United States in a negative or a positive way.
There are two aspects of the negative way. One is that China and United States are mutual "terrorists" in economics, because the two economies are highly interdependent, especially in finance. The other is that they can be a nuclear deterrent, because both China and the United States have nuclear weapons. The United States and the Soviet Union had nothing but a mutual nuclear deterrent in the Cold War. But they did not have direct conflict. Therefore the highly inter-dependent economic ties between China and the United States will effectively prevent a war between the two countries.
China's positive way is more important than the negative way. At present, the two countries co-exist in a system with the United States is the top and China behind. Both have the responsibility to maintain the world order. Although China and the U.S. have different definitions of China's international responsibility, there is some overlap as the latter is the leader in this system. Therefore, there is potential for the two countries to cooperate in global issues. Without each other's cooperation, neither China nor the United States can act on important issues.
The U.S. pivot to Asia is from its fear of China's rise, not from any real "China threat." China does not want to exclude the United States from Asian affairs. It just wants the United States to respect its core interests. In fact, the pivot to Asia strategy has impacted U.S. hegemony in other regions, such as Africa and the Middle East. Either the United States has support from other countries to maintain its dominance, or it will be replaced by another country in these regions. Taking this into consideration, it is not hard for China to find effective ways to balance the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
The author is director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore.
This article was first published in Chinese and translated by Li Shen.
Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.
