Double jeopardy of China's diplomacy
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GT: Is it an inevitable part of the rise of new powers?
Sun: Once-weak nations always suffer the jealousy of others in the process of becoming strong. It is very meaningful that we highlight strategic opportunities over the next 20 years. If we can't maintain good relations with both developing and developed countries, we won't be able to seize these chances.
Yuan: China's current situation is more complex than those of other powers in the same stage in the past. The world is experiencing globalization. All the nations are closely linked with each other, and China can't shut the door, hide its capacities and bide its time.
The US was able to do this as it grew more powerful. As it was far away from Europe, the center of world politics at that time, the US could concentrate on maintaining relations with its immediate neighbors. China's situation is quite different. We want to keep our development low-key, while other countries are pressuring us to take a higher profile.
Besides, China's surrounding environment is complex. China has 14 neighbors on land and eight neighbors at sea, among which there are several nuclear powers and unstable powers.
China is rising as a socialist country, whereas the US had fundamentally the same political system as Europe by the early 20th century.
However, as China is the biggest socialist power in the world, its rise will inevitably cause great pressure on other's ideology and social system.
China has 1.3 billion people, much more than the 100 million the US had during its rise, or the 10 million Britain had as it became a world power. The rise of China is having unprecedented influence on world resources, especially the energy. There is no doubt that China's development costs too much.
All this means China faces a more complex and difficult situation during its rise than other nations did.
Peng: In history, rising powers often used wars to solve their incompatible conflicts. China's rise could avoid such a war.
China is developing in a nuclear age and under the background of globalization. Big powers have the ability to destroy each other while their interests are also interdependent.
Some people think that China's international environment has deteriorated. In fact, I think today's actions are precisely the performance of China's heyday, not the performance of a weak nation.
GT: How should China deal with the current challenges?
Yuan: We must thoroughly recognize the complexity and risks at this stage, calm down and keep a low profile. In the past, we emphasized concealing our capabilities and biding our time. Now we should strive to develop but take a low profile.
Western powers don't think China has done too much, but are afraid China will become more aggressive. That's what they are worried about.
We should seek constructive cooperation with the hegemonic power of the US and try not to break relations. The US replaced Britain politically half a century after it surpassed it economically. At the moment China's GDP is only one-third of that of the US and its economy still greatly lags behind the US.
We still haven't developed consolidated sound neighboring relations and are vulnerable to a unified anti-China front. The deployment of the US carrier in US-South Korean naval exercises this year has challenged China's peaceful development. Conflict is necessary, while hard conflict is unfavorable.
Sun: US President Woodrow Wilson put forward the Fourteen Points after World War I. Although the development plan was relatively weak, empty and idealistic, it showed a strong sense of morality and divine guidance. That's what China lacks. In the past 20 years, China has become more pragmatic, but lacks a grand strategy and vision.
Peng: China has no desire to replace the US, nor is it able to. The international community is witnessing the development of a group of new merging countries, not only China. It is an irreversible trend. There is nothing wrong with the direction toward peaceful development, but more detailed work should be done to fulfill it.
