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Sentencing former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to death will not fundamentally change the volatile situation in the troubled Middle Eastern country, but could instead lead to an escalation of bloodshed, Chinese observers said yesterday.

 

Whether Saddam lives or dies makes no difference to the complicated situation in Iraq, Yin Gang, a researcher of Middle East issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China Daily.

 

"But one definite thing is some supporters of Saddam are likely to take retaliatory actions if he is executed, which will deepen the country's turmoil," Yin said.

 

According to Yin, the country's majority Shiites, who were heavily persecuted under Saddam's more-than two decades of authoritarian rule, will view the outcome as a cause for celebration.

 

But some Sunni supporters of the former Iraqi leader still cherish the memory of Saddam's rule, he said.

 

Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, said the execution concerns not just Saddam alone.

 

"The guilty verdict for Saddam is expected to escalate the conflicts between hardliners among Saddam's fellow Sunnis and the opposition Kurds. Besides, some anti-US military forces might also avail of the opportunity to create conflicts," Hua said.

 

The verdict was made ahead of elections in the US on Tuesday during which control of Congress is at stake. The Democrats' strategy has been to increase pressure on the Republicans by claiming the war in Iraq started by the Bush Administration is a "failed course," Hua said.

 

Although US President George W. Bush's chief spokesman Tony Snow underscored on Saturday that Saddam's trial was being conducted by an independent Iraqi judiciary, observers said there were still concerns that the timing of the trial was at least partially approved by the US.

 

"The Bush Administration wants to assure its voters of the legitimacy of the war, but the verdict will surely complicate the Iraqi situation," Hua said.

 

(China Daily November 6, 2006)