New inflation management measures in the air

4月份宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)公布在即 提準(zhǔn)加息如箭在弦

China will continue to use price tools to manage inflation expectation, China’s central bank told Xinhua Tuesday.

As inflation and currency appreciation pressures mount, analysts predict the Peoples Bank of China will continue to raise interest rates and increase the required reserve ratio, considered by many experts the best solution for hedging foreign exchange.

Experts expect both rates will be lifted again over the next two months.

Raising bank reserve requirement ratios is based on the excessive liquidity and will not have an upper limit.

"Considering the massive liquidity in May, it is not enough for the central bank count on issuing bills to hedge the foreign exchange," said a trader from a state-owned commercial bank.

The data indicates that the inflation pressure in China is intensifying. The central bank may use interest tools to curb inflation at any time, the trader added.

The nation's consumer price index is expected to have risen more than 5 percent in April. Although food prices dropped slightly last month, non-food prices saw a larger increase than in March.

April macroeconomic and financial data will be released next Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

據(jù)新華社報(bào)道，中國(guó)央行將繼續(xù)運(yùn)用價(jià)格調(diào)控手段，以管理通脹預(yù)期。

分析人士預(yù)測(cè)，隨著通脹和人民幣升值的壓力繼續(xù)加大，央行會(huì)再次加息和提高存款準(zhǔn)備金率。上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率仍是對(duì)沖外匯占款的最優(yōu)選擇。

專(zhuān)家預(yù)測(cè)：提準(zhǔn)和加息的可能性在5月和6月都存在。

央行再次強(qiáng)調(diào)，提高存款準(zhǔn)備金率是針對(duì)偏多流動(dòng)性，且不存在絕對(duì)上限。

"5月份如此巨量的流動(dòng)性，僅靠發(fā)行央票對(duì)沖是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的，再次上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率已提上議事日程。"一家國(guó)有商業(yè)銀行的交易員稱(chēng)。

數(shù)據(jù)表明，中國(guó)未來(lái)一段時(shí)間通貨膨脹上行壓力增大。上述交易員稱(chēng)，利率這個(gè)應(yīng)對(duì)通脹最有效的工具也有可能隨時(shí)再次降臨。

據(jù)多家機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，4月份CPI指數(shù)同比增幅仍在5%以上。盡管食品價(jià)格環(huán)比小幅下跌，但非食品類(lèi)價(jià)格環(huán)比上漲高于前期。

下周三（5月11日）國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局將公布4月份CPI等宏觀數(shù)據(jù)，當(dāng)月金融運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù)也將公布。