WB: China's 2011 export growth will fall to 12.4%

世行：中國(guó)出口增長(zhǎng)或降至12.4%

China will no longer depend so much on trade surplus to support its economic growth, according to a report by the World Bank.

The World Bank predicted China's average trade surplus in 2011 and 2012 to stand at about US$200 billion, 2.7 percent of the country's GDP and only 0.2 percentage point of its projected GDP growth. In 2010, the trade surplus accounted for 0.8 percentage point of China's economic growth, while the number was about 2.4 percentage points around 2005.

According to the report, China's exports will grow by 12.4 percent in 2011, which is only about half the country's export growth rate before the financial crisis broke out in 2009.

"With export volumes slowing more rapidly than import volumes, the contribution of net trade to real GDP growth will decline," said the World Bank in its latest China Quarterly Update report.

The less diminished role of trade in supporting China's economic growth is partly because of slack demand, as the rest of the world struggles to recover from the financial crisis, said Louis Kuijs, a Beijing-based senior economist of the World Bank.

The third round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held from May 9 and 10 in Washington D.C. China's policies on currency exchange rate will no doubt be a key focus of the dialogue.

Analysts believe that the World Bank's study may make it even harder for the U.S. to pressure China to further appreciate the yuan, especially after China posted a small trade deficit in the first quarter.

據(jù)世界銀行發(fā)布的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)季報(bào)中顯示，“中國(guó)將不再過(guò)多依賴(lài)貿(mào)易順差來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)”。

世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)2011年、2012年中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差平均約為2000億美元，只占國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的2.7%，對(duì)GDP預(yù)計(jì)增速的貢獻(xiàn)率只有0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。去年貢獻(xiàn)率為0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。相比之下，2005年前后這一貢獻(xiàn)率約2.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

世行預(yù)測(cè)，2011年經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整的出口增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)12.4%。而這只相當(dāng)于2009年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前中國(guó)一貫保持的增長(zhǎng)率的大約一半。

“由于比過(guò)去要小得多，這樣就減少了總體貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率?！笔澜玢y行上述報(bào)告稱(chēng)。

世界銀行駐北京高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師高路易指出，貿(mào)易在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中作用下降的部分原因在于，其他國(guó)家和地區(qū)正在從全球金融危機(jī)中艱難復(fù)蘇，需求不足。

5 月9日，中美戰(zhàn)略與經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話將在華盛頓召開(kāi)，中國(guó)的匯率政策無(wú)疑會(huì)成為焦點(diǎn)。

分析人士認(rèn)為，世行的上述研究，可能令美國(guó)敦促人民幣進(jìn)一步升值的工作更加困難，尤其是在今年一季度中國(guó)出現(xiàn)小額貿(mào)易逆差這一時(shí)期。